Year: 2020

Why Sequence of Returns Risk Matters Now

3 min read

Sequence of Returns RiskThat year or two when you are closing in on your retirement date, followed by a year or two after you retire, are the worst times for a sustained market decline. Market analysts call this scenario the sequence of returns (SOR) risk – because once your principal has been significantly reduced, there’s not enough time in the market left for you to recover those losses.

Two things will likely happen. First, the amount of retirement income you can withdraw each year is irrevocably reduced. For example, if you were planning to withdraw 4 percent a year from a $350,000 portfolio, you would have received a supplementary income of $14,000 a year. But if your principal drops to $280,000 a year, your 4 percent draw will generate only $11,200 a year. If you need that additional money, you will have to increase your draw to about 5 percent of the principal each year.

This leads us to the second consequence of a market decline: your principal will diminish faster. The longer you live, the greater your chances of running out of money.

How Big Is This Problem?

Because the coronavirus pandemic has sent stock markets reeling over the past few months, SOR risk has become a widespread concern. According to research by Spectrem Group, at the end of 2019, there were 11 million millionaires in the United States. By the end of March this year, at least half a million of those people were no longer millionaires.

While losses among millionaires may be disconcerting, the situation is far direr for middle-class investors, who might not have several hundred thousand dollars to spare in their retirement portfolio.

Strategies To Offset SOR Risk

If the last recession is any indicator, the economic recovery going forward could take several years. That’s not good news for people who were looking forward to retirement. This group may want to seriously consider the merits of delaying retirement and continuing to work longer, such as:

  • Allowing their portfolio time to recover
  • Continuing to contribute to tax-advantaged retirement accounts
  • Enabling their Social Security benefits to accrue higher

Another strategy to help protect your portfolio against future SOR risk is to position a larger allocation to fixed-income assets and/or an annuity. While this might limit your potential for income growth in the future, these assets are backed by more reliable payors and less subject to the vagaries of the stock market. By diversifying your current assets, you can build multiple streams of reliable income to protect you from the future threat of market losses, a global pandemic, or changes in Social Security benefits.

It’s worth considering that once we emerge from this current crisis, legislators will have to find a way to deal with the federal deficit and growing debt. The Social Security program was already projected to cut benefits by 2035 without any new funding solutions. Now, that threat is even further exacerbated by the enormous jump in unemployment numbers. This situation leaves even fewer people paying into the Social Security and Medicare programs.

All of this is why it’s very important to address today’s challenges presented by the sequence of returns risk. Explore ways to develop multiple income streams to protect your current assets and ensure they last throughout your lifetime.

Are Dividends Becoming a Luxury During the Coronavirus Pandemic?

5 min read

drop of 27 percent in dividendsAccording to the futures market, Chicago Mercantile Exchange contracts are forecasting a drop of 27 percent in dividends over 24 months for the S&P 500 index. Dividends are projected to fall to $42.05 in 2021, a drop from 2020’s dividend of $47.55 and 2019’s high of $58.24. Looking forward to 2026, according to CME’s futures contract, the dividend is expected to recover to $56.65. While the latter years are not as likely as what’s up next, it’s worth taking note.

Although these dividend levels have already been announced, the future doesn’t look much brighter. According to Goldman Sachs, Q2 economic growth is expected to drop by 34 percent. Even though the COVID-19 economic crisis is expected to be worse, we can get an idea of how bad by comparing it to the financial crisis of 2008. From 2007 to 2009, the S&P 500 dividend dropped by 25 percent; it took 48 months to recover from this drop. Based on this historical look-back, chances are it’ll take longer to get back to par this time around.

It’s noteworthy to highlight companies that suspended their dividends in April 2020, and when they last suspended their dividends, historically speaking. Dine Brands Global (DIN) initially paused its stock-buyback program. This was followed up with a suspension of its quarterly dividend of 76 cents. Royal Dutch Shell lowered its dividend by two-thirds to 16 cents per share, the first time since 1945. These examples illustrate just how dire the economic situation is for companies around the world.    

Cash Dividends Explained

A cash dividend is money distributed to stockholders according to a corporation’s present earnings or amassed profits. Dividends are declared and issued by a board of directors that determines whether they’ll remain the same, increase or decrease. 

Understanding the Need to Reduce or Cut Dividends

A dividend cut often results in a drop in a company’s stock price since it indicates a weakened financial position. Oftentimes, dividends are cut because earnings are dropping or there’s less money available to pay the dividend, which can be due to increasing debt levels.

The point here is that dividend cuts are a poor sign for a company that is facing financial difficulties due to reduced revenue, with the same overhead still needed to be paid (rent, wages, insurance, debt servicing). While dividends can be cut for short- or long-term reasons, such as buying their own stock back or buying out another company, with the ongoing coronavirus situation the majority of businesses aren’t doing it for positive reasons.

While reducing or removing a dividend from a company’s stock can divert cash for ongoing operations or debt servicing, it also can tell the markets things aren’t going well financially. This is illustrated by looking at AT&T. In December 2000, the company reduced its dividends by 83 percent, lowering it to 3.75 cents, versus the expected 22 cents by shareholders.

One of the first signals that a company can’t pay dividends, or won’t be able to in the near future, is to look at the company’s earnings trend and its payout ratio.

Looking at a Historical Example

During the second half of the 1990s, AT&T’s stock faced more and more competitors as deregulation went into effect. According to the company’s income statements from 1998 to 2000, annual earnings per share dropped by 50 percent.  

This data is according to AT&T’s 10-K, which shows that its yearly earnings dropped from $1.96 in 1998; to $1.74 in 1999; and finally to $0.88 in 2000. With this precipitous decline in earnings and the financial pressure it put on AT&T, a reduction in dividends came next. Based on this data and some analysis, we can explain how the Dividend Payout Ratio works.

Understanding the Dividend Payout Ratio

Using this ratio can help investors gauge how likely a company’s dividend will be cut or removed altogether.

Dividend Payout Ratio = Dividend Payment per Share / Earnings per Share

Looking at AT&T’s 10-Q report for Q3 of 2000, AT&T earned 35 cents per share and gave shareholders a dividend of 22 cents a share. Based on the dividend payout ratio formula, the resulting ratio was 0.63. This ratio means that 63 percent of AT&T’s earnings were given to shareholders via dividends. When companies have challenging earnings seasons, the payout ratio gets closer to 1 because whatever the company earns is eaten up by the dividend. Therefore, the closer the ratio gets to 1, the more likely the dividend will be lowered or suspended.

While there’s no predicting what the economy will do in the future, looking at past trends can give investors insight into what companies will do with their dividends when the economy faces new headwinds.

Understanding the Federal Government’s Proposal for Opening Up Again

4 min read

Understanding the Federal Government’s Proposal for Opening Up AgainAfter seeing a peak and then a sustained decline in coronavirus cases, hospitalizations, and deaths resulting from COVID-19, the White House and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has rolled out a three-tier approach to get the nation back to its pre-coronavirus economic activities.

While this program is led by the Federal Government, it is ultimately up to governors how they will reopen states and localities. However, there are some universal criteria that states must follow to gradually reopen the economy.

Before transitioning from the stay-at-home orders to the three phases, certain criteria must be met. In order to move to less restrictive phases, there must be a dropping trend of documented cases over 14 continuous days or a downward trajectory of positive tests as a percent of total tests over 14 continuous days, according to guidelines set out by the White House and the CDC. Once the initial gating criteria are met, the local government can move into phase one.

Phase One

This stage will permit establishments such as places of worship, movie theaters, restaurants, and sporting arenas to reopen if they abide by strict social distancing guidelines. Along with recommending stringent sanitation guidelines for permitted establishments to reopen, this phase also suggests telework for employees and minimizing nonessential travel.

Phase Two

Schools, daycare centers, and camps (and similar events) could resume, along with nonessential travel. Establishments permitted to reopen in phase one can remain open and are now permitted to relax their physical distancing to a moderate level. Bars can start reopening, with diminished standing-room occupancy, and gyms can stay open with strict distancing and sanitation protocols.

Phase Three

This phase would come into force when the state and/or locality has no evidence of a relapse. Worksites would see normal staff protocols without restrictions. Large establishments will be able to function under limited social distancing protocols; gyms will operate with standard sanitation protocols, and bars would be able to run with increased standing room occupancy.

As states across the country are reopening, there are many preparations that businesses can implement to stay compliant with government mandates, including re-integrating their workforce and encouraging customers to return to establishments.

Sanitation

Along with social distancing, maintaining sanitation is equally important. Encouraging workers to wash their hands at every available opportunity, including upon arriving at work; before and after eating; after touching doors, desks, keyboards, and other materials; using the restrooms, etc.

Cleaning

Whether it’s an office environment or a retail/restaurant establishment, cleaning surfaces at least once a day is recommended, but more often for surfaces that are touched or used during the course of business. Examples of items to sanitize regularly throughout the day include handles, tables, elevator buttons, sinks, registers, and point of sale terminals.

Signage

Reminding employees and visitors to go home if they have symptoms or have been exposed to the coronavirus through signage is recommended. A protocol to contact the front office based on these circumstances should be implemented.

Encouraging Telework

Identifying tasks suitable for telecommuting versus in-office is helpful for task completion, as well as promoting social distancing. Look at the perspective of work from two buckets – solitary or collaborative – and telecommuting and office time can be split accordingly. If an employee is tasked with writing reports, performing research, or calling experts, he or she could easily work from home. While collaborative work can be done remotely, it is better to be done at the office.

Other Considerations

Along with face masks, there are other ways to reduce the potential for coronavirus transmission. Offices and other establishments can have fewer seats in common rooms, using tape to mark 6 feet or more of distance. When it comes to hallways, one way to stop face-to-face exposure is to have one-way corridors. While it might create longer days, staggering shifts to reduce the number of people in the office and rearranging breaks would also reduce unnecessary employee-to-employee interactions.

Ditching cash as an accepted form of payment is another way to reduce the likelihood of coming into contact with the coronavirus on currency, along with encouraging social distancing since cash doesn’t need to be exchanged. Using online/digital payments or credit cards only is one way to accomplish this. Using designated entrances for workers (or customers), coupled with designated entrances and exits can help reduce opposing traffic and people meeting face-to-face.

While research continues to create a vaccine and render the coronavirus harmless, until that happens, businesses have many tools to reopen their businesses for the foreseeable future.

Sources

https://www.whitehouse.gov/openingamerica/

IRS Questions and Answers on COVID-19 IRA and 401(k) Loans & Distributions

3 min read

IRS Questions and Answers on COVID-19 IRA and 401(k) Loans & DistributionsThe CARES Act stimulus package substantially relaxed the rules around certain retirement account loan and distribution requirements, but with much confusion. As a result, the IRS recently put out a FAQ document to address the COVID-19 rule relaxation around IRA and 401(k) loans and distributions. This important information should come as welcome news for the nearly one percent of all retirement plan holders who have already taken a distribution under the new rules, according to Fidelity Investments.

Who’s eligible?

If you, a spouse or dependent tested positive for COVID-19, you automatically qualify. You also may qualify under less direct circumstances, such as experiencing economic hardship due to being quarantined, laid off, receiving a reduction in work hours, or missing work because you don’t have childcare. Business owners who are forced to close or reduce operating hours also qualify.

How Much Can I Take Out?

COVID-19 impacted individuals can take up to $100k in distributions without paying the 10 percent penalty imposed on early withdrawals by people under 59 1/2 years old. The $100,000 limit is the total for all the plans you have. For example, if you take $70k out of your 401(k), you can take only up to $30k out of your IRA under these rules. You will still owe taxes on the distributions as ordinary income; however, you are able to pay the taxes owed over a three-year period.

Can I Pay Myself Back?

The law also allows you to pay yourself back. Taxpayers can replace their distributions if they do so within a three-year timeframe. This means that if you take out a distribution in 2020, start to pay the taxes owed over the three-year rule and then pay back the distribution in 2022, you’ll be able to amend your 2020 and 2021 returns to get a refund, as well as not pay the tax you would have owed in 2022.

How Do Loans Work?

The maximum amount you can borrow increases from $50,000 to $100,000. You also can borrow the entire amount of your plan balance up to this limit (net of any outstanding loans). Moreover, for any loans you already have within the plan, the due date for payments due through the end of 2020 can be postponed for up to one year.

Is There Anything Else I Should Know?

Yes. First, there is more guidance coming from the IRS. Second, if you are eager to know what this formal guidance will look like, you can turn to the Hurricane Katrina relief rules from 2005 as this is what is expected will apply for the COVID-19 measures as well. Lastly, the IRS will generate a new form 8915E where taxpayers will report the repayment of COVID-19 covered distributions.

Supporting Veteran Careers, Protecting the Food Supply, and Reducing Wasted Government Spending

Supporting Veterans in STEM Careers Act (S 153) – This bill encourages veterans to participate in STEM (science, technology, engineering and mathematics) fields in a variety of ways, including making veterans eligible for certain National Science Foundation (NSF) programs. The Act directs the Office of Science and Technology Policy to establish an interagency working group to improve veteran and military spouse representation in STEM fields, and authorizes funding for the Government Accountability Office to study 1) the academic success rates of student veterans pursuing an undergraduate degree in STEM and related fields; and 2) the barriers faced by such students in pursuing such degrees. This legislation was sponsored by Sen. Marco Rubio (D-FL) on Jan. 16, 2019. It was passed in the Senate in December, the House in January, and was signed into law by the president on Feb. 11.

Protecting America’s Food and Agriculture Act of 2019 (S 2107) – This legislation directs U.S. Customs and Border Protection to hire and train more agricultural inspectors at land, air and sea ports to prevent African swine fever and other foreign animal diseases from entering the United States. The legislation was sponsored by Sen. Gary Peters (D-MI). It was introduced on July 11, 2019, passed the Senate (October) and then House (February) and is currently waiting to be signed by the president.

Payment Integrity Information Act of 2019 (S 375) – This bipartisan bill is designed to reduce federal government waste in the form of overpayments, underpayments, payments made to ineligible recipients or payments that are not properly documented. It authorizes the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) to establish pilot programs to test potential accountability mechanisms for compliance requirements, such as updating a plan to improve the integrity and usage of Social Security death data. The Act was introduced on Feb. 7, 2019, by Sen. Thomas Carper (D-DE); it passed the Senate in July, the House in February and is currently waiting to be enacted.

Presidential Transition Enhancement Act of 2019 (S 394) – This law requires eligible presidential candidates (as of September of an election year) to develop and release transition team ethics plans, including how they will address their own conflicts of interest, prior to election day. It also is designed to focus a transitioning government on ongoing issues in the public interest during the changeover so that priorities are not shifted to solely address those of special interest lobbyists. The bipartisan bill, introduced by Sen. Ron Johnson (R-WI) on Feb.7, 2019, was passed by the Senate in August and the House in February. It is awaiting signature by the president.

United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement Implementation Act (HR 5340) – Introduced by Rep. Steny Hoyer (D-MD), this legislation represents the new trade agreement between the United States, Mexico and Canada to replace the North American Free Trade Agreement. This bill passed in both the House and Senate and was signed by the president on Jan. 29. Mexico has also signed the agreement. However, Canada is still in the process of getting it ratified through Parliamentary procedures.

PIRATE Act (HR 583) – This bill dramatically increases the fine for operating a “Pirate Radio” station, in which people set up their own stations outside the official Federal Communications Commission (FCC) system. The maximum fine increases from $19,639 to $100,000 per day, with a maximum total fine capped at $2 million, up from $147,290. The legislation was introduced by Rep. Paul Tonko (D-NY) in January 2019. It passed in the House in February 2019 and in Senate in January 2020. The bill was signed into law on Jan. 24.

6506148 B2 Patent: Nervous System Manipulation – Is it Real or Just Paranoia?

Imagine someone manipulating how you feel. Of course, no one wants that. But how about being manipulated unknowingly? This is exactly what is happening to your nervous system every time you switch on your TV or computer.

Well, at least according to the 6506148 B2 Patent.

The patent named “Nervous System Manipulation By Electromagnetic Fields From Monitors” was filed in 2001 and published in 2003. The patent was filed by one Hendricus G. Loss (perceived to be a fictitious person as no information about who he really is can be traced).

Is it Worth Any Attention?

We already know that the content displayed on TVs or even on the internet is created in such a way as to influence decisions, such as when making a purchase or standing behind certain beliefs.

The mind control subject has been a topic of discussion for a long time. Although initially considered a conspiracy theory, its reality has been observed in the content displayed by mainstream media.

But how about manipulation through the nervous system?

Science teaches us that the work of the nervous system is to carry messages throughout the body and control your senses. The nervous system, according to neuroscientists, is controlled by the brain.

Now, the brain is said to be a complex bioelectrical organ that produces electric fields.

That’s why it’s believed that you can rewire your brain through techniques such as listening to binaural beats. Scientists also claim to control brain functions with a technique that uses powerful electromagnetic radiation. This technique, known as Transcranial magnetic stimulation (TMS), can jam or excite particular brain circuits.

Think of how you are not allowed to use cell phones in some areas of a hospital or in an airplane (where some only allow use in airplane mode). This is so that the electromagnetic transmission of the phone does not interfere with critical electrical devices.

So if a brain is a bioelectrical organ, is there a possibility of manipulating it?

How it Happens, According to 6506148 B2 Patent

Here is a short excerpt from the patent abstract:

“Physiological effects have been observed in a human subject in response to stimulation of the skin with weak electromagnetic fields that are pulsed with certain frequencies near ½ Hz or 2.4 Hz, such as to excite a sensory resonance. Many computer monitors and TV tubes, when displaying pulsed images, emit pulsed electromagnetic fields of sufficient amplitudes to cause such excitation.

It is, therefore, possible to manipulate the nervous system of a subject by pulsing images displayed on a nearby computer monitor or TV set. For the latter, the image pulsing may be embedded in the program material, or it may be overlaid by modulating a video stream, either as an RF signal or as a video signal. The image displayed on a computer monitor may be pulsed effectively by a simple computer program. For certain monitors, pulsed electromagnetic fields capable of exciting sensory resonances in nearby subjects may be generated even as the displayed images are pulsed with subliminal intensity.”

The US Patent 6506148 B2 is a confirmation of the possibility to manipulate the nervous system. The patent includes 14 claims including how video can be used to manipulate the nervous system.

Is it just a conspiracy theory?

Well, it’s not easy to tell. But we can’t ignore the concerns raised in regards to electromagnetic fields (EMF). The EMF issue has raised so much concern that in May 2015, 190 scientists from 39 nations submitted an Appeal to the United Nations requesting the World Health Organization (WHO) adopt more EMF exposure protective guidelines.

Such concerns are an indication that the patent should not be ignored. It also goes to show that apart from your electronic devices recording, monitoring and watching everything you are doing, they can also influence living organisms’ feelings, perceptions, thoughts and behavior.

Switch off that Screen

Well, this is practically not possible. The dependence on these electronic devices is so high that we are practically immobilized if they were to be turned off. Electronics have become part of human attachment.

The age of the Internet of Things (IoT) doesn’t make it any better. Now that we are surrounded by electromagnetic emitting devices, the patent serves as an alert to the public of the possibility of what could happen if these technologies were used unethically.

Unfortunately, the technology is here to stay. The only option is to minimize the exposure from your EMF emitting devices. Therefore it’s not a bad idea to try something different: read a book, go hiking, take a walk or simply switch off that screen when you can.

7 Ways to Avoid Investment Fraud

These days, you can’t be too careful when it comes to investments. And if you’re older, you’re a prime target for fraudsters. That said, anyone of any age is vulnerable. Here are a few key things to keep in mind when you’re considering investing.

Ask Lots of Questions

Of course, you’re going to ask questions, but make sure you ask the right ones. Is the product registered with the SEC or state securities agencies? What are the fees? How does the company make money? What things might affect the value of the investment? Are my investment goals aligned with the investment? How liquid is this investment? For more ideas about what questions to ask, check out this comprehensive resource from the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.

Do Your Research

And we don’t mean simply Googling them. If you’re thinking about investing in a publicly traded company, go immediately to the SEC’s EDGAR database. You can look up the prospective company to see if it’s legitimate.

Beware of Unbelievable Returns

If something sounds too good to be true, chances are it is. If you hear that the investment will make “incredible gains,” is a “breakout stock pick” or has a “huge upside and almost no risk,” these are big red flags of fraud. Further, if the salesperson promises a guaranteed return, you know this isn’t true; every equity investment has a modicum of risk.

Resist ‘Act Now’ Offers

If someone tells you that this investment is a once-in-a-lifetime offer and it will be gone tomorrow, walk away. Another scam tactic is one that claims “everyone is investing in X stock, and so should you.” As irresistible as this might sound, don’t succumb to the pressure. It’s a trick.

Avoid Reciprocity

One of the most common lures that tricksters use are free seminars that include lunch. They play on your guilt and figure that if they do something for you, you’ll return the favor and invest. It’s never a good idea to invest on the spot. Take the materials home and do your research. With that said, not every free seminar is bogus. Just follow through with your due diligence and protect yourself.

Know Your Salesperson

We’re not talking “know,” as in you follow them on social media or you have a number of mutual friends and they come highly recommended. But even if you’re connected with them through a seemingly respected company and you “feel” like they’re trustworthy, don’t trust blindly. Check them out at BrokerCheck, an online database maintained by the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority (FINRA). This is a nongovernmental group that watches over securities firms and dealers. Remember: credibility can be faked. Don’t be duped.

Stay Away from Robocalls, Emails and Late Night TV ads

Let’s be honest, legitimate companies don’t reach people this way. However, swindlers can be very persuasive. But stand your ground. Don’t budge. When it comes to seniors, crooks view them as “more trusting” and less likely to say no. The truth is that older people are more often targeted because the supposition is that they have more assets to tap into – aka steal. Don’t let these buggers woo you. Hang up, hit delete or change the TV channel.

If you’ve taken every precaution and you still feel like you need help before you make an investment decision, consult your accountant or financial planner. When it comes to your hard-earned money, it’s worth all the time in the world.

Sources

https://www.investor.gov/protect-your-investments/fraud/how-avoid-fraud/what-you-can-do-avoid-investment-fraud

SECURE Act Seeks to Help Americans Save More for the Golden Years

At the end of 2019, Congress passed the Setting Every Community Up for Retirement Enhancement (SECURE) Act as part of a year-end appropriations package. This bill is designed to address specific issues related to retirement savings plans in an effort to help Americans save more for retirement.

Retirement Plan Contributions

People are living longer, and a decrease in employer-sponsored pensions has resulted in retirees relying more on Social Security benefits than in the past. So first, the SECURE Act eliminated the age limit on traditional IRA contributions so that people who work into their 70s and beyond may continue to contribute to the traditional IRA up to the annual limit. In 2020, the limit for all IRAs – traditional and Roth combined – is $6,000; $7,000 for individuals age 50 and older.

Retirement Plan Distributions

The SECURE Act also extends how long retirees may keep money invested in their traditional IRA, 401(k)s and other defined-contribution plans before mandating distributions. Starting this year, people who turn 70½ after Dec. 31, 2019 may delay having to start taking annual required minimum distributions (RMD) until age 72.

Inherited IRAs Reigned In

The Stretch IRA is an advantage bestowed to non-spouse beneficiaries who inherit an IRA. While a benefit still exists, the SECURE Act makes it somewhat less advantageous. Starting in 2020, assets in these inherited accounts must be fully distributed by Dec. 31 of the 10th year following the death year of the IRA owner. This means that annual distributions will be larger and the investment will no longer be able to grow beyond 10 years.

Employer-Sponsored Retirement Plans

The SECURE Act also made changes to employer-sponsored retirement plans. For example, it allows employers to increase the cap on automatic payroll contributions to 15 percent (up from 10 percent) of an employee’s paycheck. Research has found that automatic payroll deductions have been instrumental in improving both participation and savings rates among employer retirement plans. However, employees continue to have the ability to retain their current contribution level (or opt out of the plan entirely).

The legislation also requires employers that sponsor a defined-contribution plan to offer it to any long-term, part-time workers. The criteria for this requirement are that individuals must be age 21 or older and work at least 500 hours each year, for three years in row. However, the measurement time for this requirement doesn’t start until 2021.

The SECURE Act attempts to replace the secure pension plan by making it more attractive for employers to offer a lifetime income option as part of their 401(k) plan. Also known as an annuity, this option allows the worker to use his or her retirement plan contributions to purchase an annuity contract over time.

In the past, employers were reluctant to include an annuity option because they could be held liable if the annuity provider is unable to fund the retirement income guaranteed by the annuity contract. To help alleviate this concern, the SECURE Act protects the employer from liability as long as it chooses an annuity insurer that, for at least seven years, is 1) licensed by that state’s insurance commissioner; 2) has filed audited financial statements in accordance with state laws; and 3) maintains the statutory requirements for reserves among all states where the provider does business.

Employers that offer an annuity option must now issue a customized statement each year that estimates how much plan participants would receive in monthly retirement income based on the current balance of their annuity. When employees retire or take a new job, they can transfer their in-plan annuity to another 401(k) or an IRA without incurring fees or surrender charges.

The SECURE Act also provides new benefits for small businesses that sponsor a retirement plan for employees. They may now receive up to $5,000 to offset retirement plan startup costs, and can get an additional $500 tax credit per year for three years if their plan features auto-enrollment for new hires. The bill makes it possible for small employers in unrelated industries to open a multiple-employer 401(k) plan (MEP) in order to share administrative costs.

Conclusion

Overall, the various provisions of the SECURE Act described above are designed to make retirement savings easier and more accessible. Small businesses will find it less burdensome to offer both full- and part-time employees 401(k) plans by providing tax credits and protections on collective Multiple Employer Plans. Individuals will find they have more flexibility in managing their accounts later in life. Overall, the SECURE Act should ease the coming retirement crisis as demographics change by helping people prepare better.

Coronavirus: Black Swan or Buying Opportunity?

According to the World Economic Forum (WEF), the spread of the coronavirus will impact the world’s economy. Whether it’s a Reuter’s poll from economic experts projecting growth in China slowing to 4.5 percent in Q1 of 2020, in contrast to China’s Q4 GDP of 6 percent; or the International Energy Agency (IEA) saying world desire for oil will be lower due to the coronavirus; or global companies reducing or temporarily closing their Chinese factories, change is on its way. Based on this data, what does the global economic outlook entail?

In order to understand how the coronavirus might impact global economies, it’s important to put this in context of other global events. Based on a February 2020 Monetary Policy Report from The Federal Reserve, there’s a mixed outlook for recent and projected economic activity. While the Fed notes that oil prices have increased over the past six months of 2019, in part due to OPEC members cutting production and brief tensions with Iran in January 2020, The Fed attributes more recent drops in oil prices to the coronavirus and associated lowered global demand.

Due to China’s already slowing economy, the IEA is projecting 435,000 fewer barrels of oil on an annual basis during Q1 of 2020, the worst in a decade. Looking at statistics from the United Nation’s International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO), airlines are expected to see revenue losses of between $4 billion and $5 billion in the first three months of 2020. With the coronavirus impacting China, thereby reducing outbound travel to Japan and Thailand, losses could be as big as $1.29 billion and $1.15 billion for each respective country.

The Fed explains that in 2019, manufacturing has been challenged both globally and domestically. Citing the industrial production (IP) index, the first six months of 2019 saw declines in both domestic and global activity. For 2019, U.S. production dropped by 1.3 percent for durable and non-durable goods. This is attributed to trade issues with China, soft economic growth worldwide, less than aggressive investment from businesses, declining oil prices that lower continued production by crude producers and production issues with Boeing’s 737 Max airplanes.

However, despite the manufacturing slowdown in China, the United States’ manufacturing base shouldn’t see the same impact from the coronavirus. The Fed says that factoring in purchasing materials for production on the input end, and transporting, wholesaling and retailing products post production, the drop of 1.3 percent on the industrial production index equates to a 0.5 percent drop in U.S. GDP. For context, compared to the U.S. manufacturing employing 30 percent of workers 70 years ago, it presently employs 9 percent of workers.

One way to see how the coronavirus might play out is to look at how SARS impacted China in 2003. Based on data from the National Bureau of Statistics in China, it took three months, during Q1 of 2003, where China’s economic growth dropped to 9.1 percent, from 11.1 percent. While a much smaller economy, on a global scale, in future quarters China was able to grow at an annualized rate of 10 percent, per Refinitiv. However, economists note that if SARS didn’t impact China, there could have been another 0.5 percent to 1 percent increase in annual growth.

Another comparison with SARS is China’s retail sales. Refinitiv shows that May 2003 retail sales dropped to 4.3 percent. This is compared to between 8 percent and 10 percent for retail sales figures in March 2003 and July 2003, showing how serious the impact SARS made, but also China’s resiliency.

While the Chinese economy impacts the global economy today more than when SARS hit, it also has a more responsive economy and a larger middle class. Only time will tell as to the coronavirus’ impact, but based on past experience, it should only be a matter of time before China’s (and the global) economy bounces back to greater economic output.

4 Common Liquidity Ratios in Accounting

One way a business can manage its books and viability in the near and long terms is to see how liquid its assets are. Businesses that have better cash positions are naturally geared toward sustaining continued success. One important reason for a business to measure and maintain healthy levels of liquidity is because it promotes better odds that a company will be able to satisfy its short-term debts. There are many ways business can accomplish this, and below are four common ways it can be done.

Current Ratio

One of the few liquidity ratios is what’s known as the current ratio. It’s a way to determine how well a company can pay back its debts.

The current ratio is also known as the “working capital ratio,” showing how well a business can satisfy financial obligations that must be paid back within 12 months. Using an example is a good way to see how it works:

Let’s assume a company has the following assets, it would use the following ratio:

Current Ratio = Current Assets / Current Liabilities

Marketable Securities such as stocks, bonds or purchase agreements maturing in 12 months or less can be considered a current asset. Businesses may also consider cash, accounts receivable, prepaid expenses, office supplies and saleable inventory they have in stock as current assets.

Outstanding bills or accounts payable and short-term debt – within the next 12 months as described above – are considered current liabilities. Other expenses can be interest payable, income and payroll taxes payable, which can also be considered current liabilities.

If the current assets of a business are $250 million, and that is divided by current liabilities of $75 million, the Current Ratio would be 250 / 75, or 3.33

With a current ratio of 3.33, the company is in good financial health because it can pay off its debts easily.

Acid-Test Ratio

The Acid-Test Ratio determines how capable a company is of paying off its short-term liabilities with assets easily convertible to cash.

Also known as the quick ratio, the formula is as follows:

Acid-Test Ratio = Current Assets – Inventories / Current Liabilities

Current assets consist of cash and similar assets (savings/checking accounts, deposits becoming liquid in three months or less), marketable securities and accounts receivable. From there, the summation is divided by the company’s current liabilities expected to be paid in 12 months.

The other way to calculate the acid-test ratio or quick ratio is as follows:

The first step is to look at the company’s current assets that can be liquidated within 12 months. Then inventory must be valued – that which is intended to be sold for purchase. From there, the inventory value is subtracted from the current assets. The resulting value is then divided by the business’ current liabilities.

The acid-test ratio is one way to determine a company’s ability to satisfy current liabilities without selling inventory or getting more lending. With the uncertainty and profitability of selling inventory, one can argue that it gives a better picture of a company’s financial fitness.

For example, if a company comes out with a ratio of 3, this means that a business has $3 for every $1 of liabilities. However, as a company’s quick ratio increases, it might show there’s too much money not being reinvested to increase the company’s efficiency and profitability. A higher quick ratio figure can also indicate that there are too many accounts receivable that are owed but uncollected by the company.

Cash Ratio

As the name implies, the cash ratio determines how financially able a company is to satisfy short-term liabilities with cash and cash equivalents.

Also referred to as the cash asset ratio, this tells how capable a business is of satisfying short-term debts, usually 12 months or less, with cash and cash equivalents only. This ratio is as follows:

Cash Ratio = Cash and Cash Equivalents / Current Liabilities

Examples of cash and cash equivalents include physical currency, minted coins and checks. Cash equivalents include money market accounts, Treasury bills and anything that can be converted into cash in almost real-time.

When it comes to current liabilities, accrued liabilities, short-term debts and accounts payable are examples that are due within one year.

From there, the ratio is as follows to determine a company’s cash asset ratio:

Cash and Cash Equivalents (Cash: $25,000 + Cash Equivalents: $100,000) / Liabilities (Accounts Payable: $30,000 + Short-term debt: $25,000)

$125,000 / $55,000 = 2.27

Based on this calculation, the company would be able to pay off 227 percent of present liabilities with its cash and/or cash equivalents. For creditors and investors evaluating a company, it can show the company has ample liquidity. Creditors are naturally more willing to lend to companies with more cash flow; and investors are interested to see how liquidity is being managed.

Operating Cash Flow Ratio

This ratio measures how efficiently a business can meet present liabilities from the cash flow of its core business operations. It tells a company the number of times over it can satisfy its liabilities based on the amount of cash it generated over a certain time-frame.

This ratio can also include accruals, giving a fair estimate of a business’ short-term liquidity. The formula to determine this ratio is as follows:

Operating Cash Flow Ratio = Cash Flow from Operations / Current Liabilities

The statement of cash flow is where the operation’s cash flow is found. It can also be calculated by determining a company’s net income, plus non-cash expenses, plus working capital changes.

Current liabilities are defined as financial obligations due within the next 12 months. Common ones are accrued liabilities, accounts payable and/or short-term debt.

Once the operating cash flow ratio is calculated, a company’s financial health can be determined. If the ratio is 1.5 or 2, for example, it means the company can cover 1.5 times or double its present liabilities. However, if the ratio is less than 1, then the amount of cash generated from operations is insufficient to satisfy short-term liabilities.

As part of a comprehensive accounting practice, businesses that run these ratio calculations will be able to identify where there’s too little or too much liquidity and reduce current and future financial peril.