No surprise, but Americans are consuming and spending less since the coronavirus kicked in.  Retail sales dropped to 8.7 percent in March, the largest month-over-month decline since the Census Bureau started tracking this data. Previously, the sharpest decline was less than half this – at 3.9 percent from October 2008 to November 2008, during the previous economic crisis. The reduction in consumer spending is due in part to lockdowns, spending more time at home for fear of the virus, and the economic impact – whether it’s losing a job, reduced hours, or in anticipation of tougher times ahead.

While consumer spending is down at a net level, there appear to be some winners and some losers in the post-COVID world of staying in and working from home. Restaurants and apparel are the hardest hit, whereas online retailers, home, garden, grocery, and alcohol sales are all up.

The decline and shift in consumer spending are having a strong negative impact on state sales tax revenues. Nationwide, sales taxes account for approximately 20 percent of all state revenue, so the decline in consumer spending will have a material impact on state budgets. As a result, states are looking at new ways to generate or increase revenue to offset the trend. Below we’ll look at three ways states are looking to raise taxes to make up for holes in their budgets.

Grocery Staples 

Eating out less and working from home mean Americans are spending more at the grocery store; approximately 13 percent more year-over-year, per Census data. The issue for states is that groceries are generally not taxed or low-taxed, although there are a few items that apply the full tax rate.

Kansas, for example, applies the full sales tax rate to groceries. The consequence of this is that grocery sales make up about 15 percent of Kansas’ total sales tax revenue. The consequence of this policy is that the state’s sales tax revenue has barely taken a hit year-to-date.

States are taking notice and may move to the trend of taxing groceries as a way to recover part of their declining sales tax revenues.

Digital Taxes

Another trend is the increase in streaming services and one-time rentals/purchases of digital goods for entertainment and working at home. Currently, 22 states tax streaming services, and 30 states tax digital goods. Other states will look to start taxing these services as well, and digital taxes will start to expand into cloud storage and other services as more people work remotely.

Sin Taxes

Sin taxes are taxes on goods and services that are “bad” for us; think alcohol, tobacco, gambling, and marijuana (where it’s legal). Increases in sin taxes are generally easier to pass as they don’t apply to the overall general population and politicians can play the moral angle.

During the last recession, for example, lawmakers in more than 12 states increased tobacco and liquor taxes. Newer sin taxes are being instituted, such as those on vaping equipment and supplies.

Conclusion

The exact form and structure will vary, but one thing is certain: States will institute or increase taxes in areas where the money is being spent to ensure their sales tax revenue remains stable. 

As the economic impact of COVID-19 lingers and an impending second wave is on everyone’s mind, Congress is already thinking of new legislation to stimulate the economy. One of the ideas on the top of the list is an expansion of the Research and Development (R&D) tax credit as part of the next COVID-19 relief bill.

Proposals for the R&D Tax Credit

There are numerous proposals for changing the R&D tax credits. It is seen as an investment in the U.S. economy, with some believing the credit is an effective tool to combat offshoring. Some of the main proposals for changes to the R&D tax credit include:

• Doubling the current credit
• Giving businesses the ability to immediately use the credit instead of having carryforward credits
• Expanding the credit for domestic manufacturing
• Increasing the refundable amount for startups

Will My Business Qualify?

The best candidates for R&D tax credit are companies that operate in the following spaces: manufacturing, architecture, engineering, construction, software, life sciences, and medical devices. The key determinate is whether your company makes or improves something; this will give you the best chance to qualify.

Contractors

There is a misconception that if your business is hired or contracted to perform work for other organizations that you cannot qualify for the R&D tax credit. This is not necessarily true; contractors (especially government contractors) can qualify if they have both economic risk and retain substantial rights as contractors.

Startups

The R&D tax credit is refundable in part (against employer payroll tax) for startups. The idea is to expand the refundability so that the credit can be offset against more than just payroll taxes and even perhaps to make it refundable (to some degree) in general. The idea here is that startups won’t be forced to carryforward credits for years and can then reinvest the cash flow to accelerate growth and job creation.

Internal Use Software

Internal use software is software that companies develop themselves. It can be stand-alone software or modifications to existing systems through substantial improvements, the development of add-ons or modules – the idea is to expand the space of what qualifies for the credit for internal-use software. This would allow companies that traditionally wouldn’t have qualified (such as financial institutions, banks, and retail stores) to now potentially be eligible.

Conclusion

This next relief package is likely to be considered prior to the summer congressional recess. Many analysts believe the bill will focus on provisions that help businesses hire back laid-off workers, retain current employees, and grow over the long-term. It’s likely the R&D tax credit will play a key role in the latter objective.

The HEROES Act, otherwise known as the Health and Economic Recovery Omnibus Emergency Solutions Act, can greatly improve the benefits for the earned income tax credit (EITC) for eligible workers who don’t have children. This legislation would also help wage earners in the business-to-consumer and leisure sectors of the economy impacted severely by the coronavirus pandemic.

Looking at the HEROES Act legislation and how it would help childless wage earners, we need to examine the rules surrounding the EITC and how many additional filers may qualify. While childless students pursuing formal education are still required to be 25 for EITC eligibility, filers as young as 19 (down from 25 years old), as well as filers aged up to 67 (up from 64), are now able to apply for the childless EITC. This legislation would also increase the credit’s ceiling to $1,487, from $538.

Looking at these proposed amendments to the tax code, this would act as a one-time stimulus to the economy when the credit is disbursed to eligible filers, specifically focused on low-income wage earners. Based on a review by the Tax Policy Center, 75 percent of the benefits created by the HEROES Act legislation for the EITC would be directed toward the lowest fifth of U.S. earners. Sectors of the economy that will benefit from this effect include health care, manufacturing, construction, and professional services.

However, there is one consideration that must be taken into account, especially in periods of low economic growth. If eligible wage earners see their earnings fall, then the EITC also will become smaller. There is a possibility that the U.S. House and Senate may work together to modify this legislation to speed up or get rid of the phasing-in process, thereby correcting this flaw.   

Another piece of the HEROES Act changes how people can claim the EITC when they file their 2020 taxes. The legislation will allow filers to claim their EITC according to their 2019 or 2020 income, permitting filers to choose the tax year that gives them a more favorable credit. This takes inspiration from other tax years when victims of natural disasters were able to obtain more favorable tax credits. The HEROES Act will give this choice of tax years to all filers eligible for the EITC, not exclusively for childless workers.

Regardless of the process, this could aid in stabilizing economic conditions now or in the future, regardless of why the economy suffers. This is because this legislation would ensure a falling EITC doesn’t increase a wage earner’s overall losses.

Making this type of change to how the EITC is awarded to childless workers would give greater certainty for more predictable financial help and streamline things for legislators and government officials to distribute monies during the next economic downturn.

No matter what form this legislation ultimately takes, if and when it’s signed into law, there are other pieces of legislation containing similar amendments to the EITC found within the HEROES Act. Elements proposed for improving the EITC for eligible filers are contained within the Working Families Tax Relief Act, the Middle-Class Act, and the Cost-of-Living Refund.

The CARES Act stimulus package substantially relaxed the rules around certain retirement account loan and distribution requirements, but with much confusion. As a result, the IRS recently put out a FAQ document to address the COVID-19 rule relaxation around IRA and 401(k) loans and distributions. This important information should come as welcome news for the nearly one percent of all retirement plan holders who have already taken a distribution under the new rules, according to Fidelity Investments.

Who’s eligible?

If you, a spouse or dependent tested positive for COVID-19, you automatically qualify. You also may qualify under less direct circumstances, such as experiencing economic hardship due to being quarantined, laid off, receiving a reduction in work hours, or missing work because you don’t have childcare. Business owners who are forced to close or reduce operating hours also qualify.

How Much Can I Take Out?

COVID-19 impacted individuals can take up to $100k in distributions without paying the 10 percent penalty imposed on early withdrawals by people under 59 1/2 years old. The $100,000 limit is the total for all the plans you have. For example, if you take $70k out of your 401(k), you can take only up to $30k out of your IRA under these rules. You will still owe taxes on the distributions as ordinary income; however, you are able to pay the taxes owed over a three-year period.

Can I Pay Myself Back?

The law also allows you to pay yourself back. Taxpayers can replace their distributions if they do so within a three-year timeframe. This means that if you take out a distribution in 2020, start to pay the taxes owed over the three-year rule and then pay back the distribution in 2022, you’ll be able to amend your 2020 and 2021 returns to get a refund, as well as not pay the tax you would have owed in 2022.

How Do Loans Work?

The maximum amount you can borrow increases from $50,000 to $100,000. You also can borrow the entire amount of your plan balance up to this limit (net of any outstanding loans). Moreover, for any loans you already have within the plan, the due date for payments due through the end of 2020 can be postponed for up to one year.

Is There Anything Else I Should Know?

Yes. First, there is more guidance coming from the IRS. Second, if you are eager to know what this formal guidance will look like, you can turn to the Hurricane Katrina relief rules from 2005 as this is what is expected will apply for the COVID-19 measures as well. Lastly, the IRS will generate a new form 8915E where taxpayers will report the repayment of COVID-19 covered distributions.